TCFA update ...

Hey all, if you're checking in looking for some news about the Nits, you may want to check over at my original site, The College Football Athenaeum.

It's The Greatest Thing Ever!

Except for tailgating.

The O-line is terrible

David Jones, the oft-critical but oft-correct columnist for the Harrisburg Patriot-News, sums up the problem with Penn State's offense in today's paper.

Says Jones: The line can't block, and the schemes don't work.

He writes: "This program hasn't really had a good O-line since the mid-'90s. The 2002 group was passable, effective against bad teams, decent against decent ones, impotent against the best defenses.

With even that group, this team could go 9-3 this season. But, based on the USF game, this OL is a long way removed from that one. If they couldn't get a push on USF's relatively tiny D-line, they won't be moving anyone of any worth in the Big Ten.

That means it should be up to the offensive strategists to go with a scheme that takes the line out of the game as much as possible. Lots of first-down passes. Quick one- and three-step drops. Lots of one-back or even no-back sets.

Get the ball onto the edges or the flanks to State's new speedster wideouts or the short middle zone between the hashes to the backs as quickly as possible. Spread the defense with threat rather than try to hammer it with brute force. Then maybe the Lions will find some room to run the ball.

Joe Tiller did it in 1997 at Purdue when he had a lousy line and went 6-2 in the Big Ten his first season in the league. Randy Walker did it in 2000 at Northwestern when he couldn't even field a tight end and went 6-2 in the Big Ten. You can't tell me those teams had better athletes than Penn State does now. It's just not true."

Penn State does have better athletes, Dave. Unfortunately, I'm not so sure they have better coaches (on offense).

And so we're gonna be stuck with 6-5.

Oh well.

The Official Nittany News Penn State Preview

And so we find ourselves once again on the cusp of another Penn State football season.

Life is good, folks.

But we'll see how long that lasts.

Overview

The 2005 Nittany Lions, like their predecessors in 2004, are littered with question marks. At quarterback. At receiver. Along the offensive front. The kicking game.

And the coaching.

More than any other season in his half-century career at Penn State, the 2005 campaign is the season that may finally make or break Joe Paterno. What the man has accomplished to date is unquestioned--Your Editor believes, all things considered, he is the greatest college football coach of all time, and one of the great men of the 20th Century.

It's just that the 21st Century hasn't gone quite as good for old Joe. Just one winning season in the last five has left the Nittany Nation wondering if this once-dominant program can simply be "good" again. Which brings us to our preview--and our answer to that lingering question.

Offense

We'll leave the best--the defense--for last. For now, though, we have to address (unfortunately) the Penn State offense.

To say that this unit needs to improve for Penn State to win would be an gross understatement. But will they improve?

Your Editor says: Yes. But only slightly.

Leading the way for the Nittany Lions offense will be fifth-year quarterback Michael Robinson, who finally takes over the job after four years of--quite honestly--being the consummate team player. Don't think for a second Robinson didn't consider transferring in years past--he did. The fact he has been so loyal to the program--and, of course, his considerable athletic skill--make him the obvious choice for starting quarterback. I do wonder, however, how long he'll hold onto it. Sophomore Anthony Morelli has a gun for an arm and--like Robinson two years ago--is not taking his backup role well. We'll see how this shakes out. In the meantime, we can all once again lament Joe's mishandling of Morelli last year--Joe wasted the kid's redshirt for no reason.

At wideout, hope arrives in the form of three standout freshman. By now, everyone has heard of Derrick Williams, the top recruit in the nation last year, and Justin King, the stud cornerback/wideout who also was considered a top 10 recruit nationally. Both Williams and King will make an impact immediately: Williams is listed as a starter on the depth chart, and King will see snaps at both receiver and cornerback. Another freshman to watch, however, is Lydell Sargeant, a speedster from California who earned MVP honors in last year's California-Florida All-Star Game. Sargeant figures to get a few touches a game, and should contribute on kick returns. Also look for contributions from third-year wideout Terrell Golden, senior Ethan Kilmer and, especially, tight end Isaac Smolko, who could be in store for a breakout year.

At running back, the steady, hard-running (but fumble-prone)Tony Hunt will get the start after earning his stripes as a workhorse last year. But look for the promising Austin Scott to finally live up to the substantial hype he garnered coming out of high school in Allentown: Reports are Scott has slimmed down and shaped up. The kid has all the talent in the world. It's time he showed it. Other backs to watch are fullback BranDon Snow (who has suffered from repeated position changes, but has promise) and multi-use back Matt Hahn, who has good hands but may be a bit undersized for fullback.

The offensive line is, frankly, a mess. There are a couple reliable stalwarts in weakside offensive tackle Levi Brown and left guard Charles Rush, but the rest of the lineup is a mess. This is a serious, ongoing issue with the Penn State program--and it's got to be rectified if the team is to return to prominence.

In sum, the offense has promise in the youth of Williams, King and Sargeant, a reliable tight end in Smolko, and some good runners in Hunt and Scott. But the weak offensive front may render Robinson ineffective, especially if he's unable to get comfortable in the pocket. He's a natural runner, but he needs to throw if the Nits are going to score. And I just don't see it happening. At best, this unit may be good for two or three touchdowns a game. Super.

Defense

Two months ago, would have told you this Penn State defense was the best in the nation--and among the greatest in Nittany Lion history.

Today, I'll tell you only that this defense is very good.

Attrition along the defensive front--the Lions have lost the services of playmaking DT Ed Johnson (suspension) as well backup defensive ends Lavon Chisley (academically ineligible) and Amani Purcell (transfer) and may be without the services of starting DT Scott Paxson, who has been exiled to Joe's doghouse (from which few return). And sophomore linebacker Dan Connor, the team's second-leading tackler last season and probably the best underclassman linebacker in America, has been suspended indefinitely for making prank phone calls.

These are significant losses, and the defense will suffer for it.

The only untouched unit on this find defense is the secondary. Anchored by senior cornerbacks Alan Zemaitis (a guaranteed first-round NFL pick this spring) and Anwar Phillips (set for an All-Big Ten breakthrough), this unit also boasts the services of two fine senior safeties: Calvin Lowry, a four-year starter, and Chris Harrell, a three-year starter.

Such a fine secondary will all but force teams to run the ball, but that won't be easy either. Even with the losses along the front eight, Penn State boasts maybe the Big Ten's best rush end in Tamba Hali and among the nation's best linebackers in Paul Posluszny, who is the latest in Penn State's long history of great 'backers. He plays with fire and a certain level of anger, and registered more than 100 tackles last year as a true sophomore.

In sum, the defense is very good. Ten starters return from last year's defense, which as we all know, was the only defense in the nation not to allow more than 21 points in any game all year. Expect more of the same this year, with just one change: Tom Bradley, we expect, will turn up the heat on opposing offenses. That means more blitzes, as Bradley will rely on Zemaitis and Phillips to lock down opposing wideouts. Add promising youngsters such as King (who will be the team's nickel back) and freshman linebacker Tyrell Sales (who will ably step in for Connor), and this defense has a chance to be special. The only question is depth: A few injuries could turn a fine defense into an average one.

Special teams

One of the most troubling aspects of Paterno's coaching of late has been his stubbornness. There are a few things the man won't change.

Take the idea of a special teams coach. Paterno says Penn State doesn't need one--even though the on-field results clearly indicate they do. For two straight years now, Penn State's special teams (with the exception of the field goal block team) have been awful. Kickers have been off-target. Coverage has been pourous. And the return teams have not generated any excitement at all.

That should change somewhat this year, as Williams, King and Sargeant take turns returning kicks: These kids have speed Penn State has not had since Bryant Johnson in '02, and are probably faster than Johnson anyway.

Jeremy Kapinos is a fine punter and should be among the Big Ten's leaders. Place-kicking duties, however, will either fall to freshman Kevin Kelly (highly recruited out of Neshanimy, Pa.) or freshman Patrick Humes (not highly recruited). Call me crazy, but the fact that Paterno said this week that neither kicker had won the job yet makes me nervous.

Penn State's Ten Best Players:

1) CB Alan Zemaitis, No. 21: The best lock-down corner in the country is also a fantastic open-field tackler. He could get a look at safety in the pros.
2) LB Paul Posluszny, No. 31: He's wearing Shane Conlan's number and playing like him too.
3) LB Dan Connor, No. 40: When his suspension is lifted, opposing quarterbacks will take note.
4) DE Tamba Hali, No. 91: Paterno loves this kid, and so will the pro scouts.
5) QB Michael Robinson, No. 12: A great athlete. But a great quarterback? We'll see.
6) TB Tony Hunt, No. 26: He can run, he can catch, and he can block. Not flashy, just effective--but has a tendency to fumble.
7) WR Derrick Williams, No. 2: Word is, he's every bit as good as advertised.
8) TB Austin Scott, No. 33: Can he finally live up to the hype?
9) CB Anwar Phillips, No. 11: Zemaitis gets all the pub, but Phillips is almost as good.
10) SS Chris Harrell, No. 27: Nicknamed "The Assassin," Harrell is a physical presence in the mold of former Lion standout James Boyd.

Prediction Time

The conventional wisdom last spring was that if Michael Robinson and the Penn State offense could just score 20 points a game, Penn State--aided by an easy schedule--could win nine games this season. That was before two starters on the offensive line and a slew of major contributors were suspended or kicked off the team. The team we'll see take the field tomorrow is not the same team that we saw at the Blue-White Game in April, and so my predictions--around then, I would have gone for 8-4--have changed as well.

The fact is, Penn State's coaching staff is not getting the job done, at least on offense and special teams. My fear--and my prediction--is that Tom Bradley's defense will by mid-season be so thoroughly exhausted and frustrated by the offense's inability to score that they may begin to wear down and weaken. The special teams, I fear, aren't going to do their part. The newcomers--King and Williams especially--will add some excitement, but they can only do so much. There remain endemic problems with this team's offensive line and offensive gameplanning, and there's no reason for me to believe that has changed.

A fairly easy schedule should make things better, but this is not a Rose Bowl team. This is not a Citrus Bowl team, either. And I pray they're a Sun Bowl team.

Your Editor predicts 6-5.